STWF Sports | Dec. 3, 2025 – The College Football Playoff is just weeks away, and as the selection committee prepares for its most scrutinized decisions of the year, one question looms large over the sport: What happens to Texas?

Every December, the CFP committee evaluates résumés, strength of schedule, conference performance, and the ever-controversial “eye test” to determine the top 12 teams who will compete for the national championship. This year, the Texas Longhorns sit at the center of that debate—despite boasting one of the most difficult schedules in the nation and a quarterback with a last name that demands national attention.

Texas finished the season 9–3, good for fifth in the SEC standings, and now finds itself sitting at No. 13 in the penultimate CFP rankings. With only one ranking show left before the bracket is finalized, the Longhorns are officially on the outside looking in.

A TOUGH ROAD AND TOO MANY MISSTEPS

Led by sophomore quarterback Arch Manning, nephew of NFL icons Peyton and Eli, the Longhorns entered the 2025 season with sky-high expectations. The hype was justified—Manning’s pedigree, Texas’ talent, and Steve Sarkisian’s offensive system positioned them as a legitimate playoff threat.

But the Longhorns stumbled early.
They dropped their season opener to reigning champion and current No. 1 Ohio State and suffered a costly 29–13 defeat to Florida just weeks later. A third loss damaged their margin for error beyond repair.

Even so, Texas compiled one of the strongest résumés in the nation:

• Wins over ranked teams Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M

• Three wins against top-10 opponents at the time played

• One of the hardest out-of-conference schedules in college football

Their résumé has impressed analysts—just not enough to sway the committee.

SARKISIAN MAKES HIS CASE

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian went public with his plea, emphasizing Texas’ strength of schedule and quality wins. But it wasn’t enough to prevent a drop to No. 13, even as chaos unfolded around them.

Adding insult to injury, Ole Miss—despite losing head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU—jumped to No. 6, suggesting the committee views their body of work more favorably than Texas’.

For the Longhorn faithful, the optics sting.

THE BROADER IMPACT: WILL SEC TEAMS STOP SCHEDULING BIG OOC MATCHUPS?

Former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky believes Texas’ snub—if finalized—could have a major ripple effect on scheduling across the SEC.

“If Texas is left out of the top 12, you’ll see SEC teams stop scheduling challenging out-of-conference games,” Orlovsky said. “There’s no benefit. If you win, people shrug. If you lose, you’re penalized.”

Orlovsky highlighted Texas’ remarkable résumé:

• Three wins over top-10 teams at the time played

• Three wins over top-15 teams

• The first team since 2019 LSU to achieve those marks

Yet the Longhorns may still be excluded.

College GameDay analyst Kirk Herbstreit echoed the concern, pointing to Alabama’s recent decision to adjust its non-conference scheduling philosophy.

“Get ready to see this all over the sport,” Herbstreit warned. “If it’s only about how many wins you have and not who you’re playing, ADs will stop scheduling real matchups. Kiss meaningful non-conference games goodbye.”

THE FUTURE OF TEXAS AND THE CFP

While there remains a sliver of hope that late-season chaos could open the door, Texas is in a precarious position. Their résumé is elite. Their losses are costly. And the committee has made it clear that winning percentage matters more than strength of schedule—at least this year.

If Texas is ultimately left out, the fallout may affect not only the Longhorns but the entire SEC and NCAA landscape. Scheduling philosophies may shift, marquee early-season matchups could vanish, and the playoff selection system—already under heavy scrutiny—will face renewed criticism.

For now, Texas waits.
One of the most talented teams in the country may become the cautionary tale of the 2025 season.