STATE
Preview
Date: Monday
Location: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
Point Spread Lean: Mississippi State -18.5 (Projected)
Total Points Lean: Under 145.5 (Projected)
Moneyline: Mississippi State (heavy favorite)
📊 Match Breakdown
New Orleans Privateers (2-3)
UNO rolls into Starkville with confidence from strong individual showings, but their West Coast road trip showed the defensive gaps that elite offenses will exploit. The Privateers are a top-five three-point shooting team (34.8%) and rank top-five nationally in three-point defense (23.1%), a profile that keeps underdogs competitive.
X-Factors:
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Jakevion Buckley — averaging 25 in his last outing, 2nd double-double of the season, elite rebounding guard.
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MJ Thomas — a top-six rebounder in the Southland; gives UNO size they desperately need in this matchup.
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Perimeter defense — UNO’s ability to limit threes will be stress-tested by MSU’s pace and spacing.
UNO can shoot well enough to avoid being blown out early, but they don’t have the interior size or depth to survive 40 minutes against a Power-Four roster headlined by one of the nation’s hottest scorers.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-2)
The Bulldogs dropped two straight at the Hall of Fame Classic but remain dangerous — especially at home. This matchup heavily favors MSU in size, pace, and scoring firepower.
The problem for UNO? Josh Hubbard.
He enters averaging 23.8 PPG (6th nationally) and has already taken 85 shots, showing how central he is to their offense. If UNO plays zone or fails to contain him off screens, this could get out of hand early.
MSU also pounds the glass (+8 rebound margin this year), a dangerous mismatch for a Privateers team that rebounds well for their league, but has not faced a frontcourt as physical as Mississippi State’s.
📉 Key Betting Trends
UNO Trends
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Road teams with top-10 three-point defense have covered the spread in 58% of non-conference games the past 3 seasons.
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UNO is 1-9 all-time vs Mississippi State, winless in Starkville.
MSU Trends
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Mississippi State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs mid-majors.
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Bulldogs games have hit the UNDER in 5 of their last 7 due to pace control and perimeter-heavy scoring.
🎯 Prediction
Mississippi State’s size, depth, and the Hubbard scoring engine are too much for the Privateers over 40 minutes. UNO’s perimeter defense will keep them in the game early, and Buckley may provide another big scoring night — but MSU’s physicality and shot-making eventually create separation.
Final Score Prediction:
Mississippi State 81, New Orleans 62
Best Bets:
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Mississippi State -18.5
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Under 145.5
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UNO first-half +10.5 (value play)
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They tend to start fast and shoot well early before depth becomes an issue.
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