STWF | October 29, 2025 | Dallas, TX – The Indiana Pacers are still chasing their first win of the young NBA season, and the challenge won’t get any easier tonight when they visit Anthony Davis and the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET, airing on FDSN Indiana and KFAA Dallas.

The Mavericks (3-1) enter the matchup riding high after an impressive start, while the Pacers (0-3) continue to search for their identity in the post-Myles Turner era — and for their first victory since falling just short of a championship last June.

Pacers’ Early-Season Struggles

Indiana’s first three outings have been filled with frustration rather than flashes of last season’s Finals form. The absence of Tyrese Haliburton, who continues to rehab from a torn Achilles, has left a massive void in the Pacers’ offense. Without their All-Star playmaker, the team has struggled to generate rhythm or find consistency from beyond the arc.

Veteran guard Buddy Hield has shouldered much of the offensive load, while Aaron Nesmith has emerged as a bright spot. Nesmith is averaging 12.7 points per game while shooting a blistering 47.6% from three-point range. He’s hit at least three triples in back-to-back games and went 5-for-12 from deep in Sunday’s narrow 106-102 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Head coach Rick Carlisle praised Nesmith’s poise and shot selection, saying postgame, “Aaron’s confidence right now is the best I’ve ever seen it. He’s competing on both ends and giving us a lift every night.”

Still, without Haliburton orchestrating the offense, Indiana’s ball movement has stagnated. The Pacers rank 24th in assists per game and have yet to eclipse 110 points in a contest.

Mavericks Lean on Davis, Wait on Thompson

Meanwhile, the Mavericks’ early success has been driven by the dominance of Anthony Davis, who has been in MVP form through four games. Davis is averaging 27.8 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks, reminding everyone that when healthy, he remains one of the league’s most complete forces.

But the storyline in Dallas isn’t all positive. Klay Thompson, the marquee offseason signing, has struggled mightily to find his shot. The five-time All-Star is averaging just nine points per game on 28.3% from three-point range and has hit the Under on his points prop (10.5) in every game so far this season.

Thompson scored only eight points on Monday in a loss to Oklahoma City and has yet to rediscover the shooting stroke that made him one of the most feared perimeter threats in NBA history.

While head coach Jason Kidd remains publicly patient, the pressure is quietly mounting for Thompson to perform. “Klay’s still adjusting,” Kidd said Tuesday. “He’s getting good looks — we trust those shots will start to fall. But what he’s giving us defensively and as a leader is just as valuable.”

Betting the Matchup: Pacers vs. Mavericks

Oddsmakers have Dallas favored at -6 with an over/under set at 227. The Pacers are +200 on the moneyline, while the Mavericks sit at -245.

For bettors, the value may lie in fading Thompson until he breaks his slump. The best bet of the night might be Klay Thompson Under 10.5 points (-115), given his recent struggles and reduced minutes — he’s averaging just over 20 per game.

The Pacers have quietly been a strong moneyline team dating back to last season, winning 55 of their last 83 contests and returning a +48.6-unit profit for bettors who backed them outright. Still, those numbers came with Haliburton in the lineup — and his absence looms large.

Same-Game Parlay Spotlight

For those looking for a little extra action, here’s a fan-favorite SGP (same-game parlay) built around tonight’s key storylines:

• Pacers Moneyline (+200) – Indiana has dominated this matchup recently, winning four straight against Dallas.

• Klay Thompson Under 10.5 Points (-115) – His early-season struggles continue.

• Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 Threes (-110) – Red-hot from deep, he’s cashed this in back-to-back games.

• Cooper Flagg Over 15.5 Points (-105) – The rookie forward has been inconsistent but due for a bounce-back after a two-point outing.

Prediction

The Pacers have been winless but competitive, and their recent history against the Mavericks suggests this one could be closer than the spread implies. Still, Dallas’ home-court advantage and Davis’ interior dominance might be too much to overcome without Haliburton’s playmaking.

Final Score Prediction:
Mavericks 114, Pacers 108

Dallas takes the win — but the Pacers cover, keeping things tight until the final minutes.

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