Nicholls Falls to Creighton, Ending Road Trip With Loss; Advanced Metrics Reveal Growing Concerns
Nicholls State wrapped up its extended road stretch with a tough loss to Creighton, falling 96–76 in Omaha. The defeat closes out a difficult early-season schedule for the Colonels and highlights several statistical trends that have defined their start to the year.
Creighton controlled the game through shooting efficiency and tempo, hitting 61 percent from the field and 50 percent from three while connecting on 17 triples. The Bluejays surged ahead with a big run late in the first half and entered the break up 52–35, a margin that only grew as the game continued. Balanced scoring led the way, with Jasen Green, Josh Dix, and Owen Freeman each recording 14 points.
Nicholls was led by Christian Winborne, who delivered a career-high 20 points on an outstanding 7-for-8 shooting performance, including a perfect 5-for-5 from beyond the arc. Trae English added 12 points and four assists, while Jaylen Searles contributed 10 points and seven rebounds. Despite a strong night from the perimeter and a season-best three-point percentage, the Colonels struggled to match Creighton’s execution on both ends of the floor.
Advanced metrics offer a deeper look into how the game unfolded. Estimated possessions placed Nicholls near 73.5 and Creighton at 70.2, meaning pace was not the primary issue. Instead, the difference came in efficiency: Creighton posted an estimated 1.066 points per possession while Nicholls managed only 0.914. Effective field goal percentage favored Creighton 51.1 percent to 46.1 percent, reflecting cleaner shot quality and better conversion. On the glass, Creighton secured 34.1 percent of its offensive rebound chances compared to Nicholls’ 25.7 percent, creating valuable second-chance opportunities.
These numbers align with early-season trends that suggest the Colonels are still searching for rhythm. Through the opening stretch of 2025-26, Nicholls holds an offensive rating around 93.9 and a defensive rating near 113.3, marks that fall significantly below last season’s averages of 106.6 offensively and 100.2 defensively. Scoring output is also down, sitting near 66 points per game, and turnover control remains an area that needs attention.
Three possible season paths lie ahead. If offensive struggles and defensive breakdowns continue, Nicholls could face a difficult year with a sub-.400 record. A moderate recovery scenario, driven by improved defense and better shot selection, could place them in the middle of the Southland Conference. A full turnaround, featuring increased efficiency, rebounding gains, and reduced turnovers, would give the Colonels a chance to compete near the top of the league.
The loss to Creighton may represent more than a single off night. Statistically, it mirrors several themes that have surfaced during the early schedule: low offensive efficiency, limited second-chance scoring, and opponents capitalizing on defensive openings. The next stretch of games should reveal whether this is a temporary growing pain or a season-long challenge.
For Nicholls, the path forward is clear. Increasing offensive efficiency, controlling the glass, limiting turnovers, and tightening defensive rotations will be essential if the Colonels hope to change the trajectory of the season. With their lengthy road swing now finished, improvements on familiar hardwood could determine how quickly progress is made.
