OKLAHOMA CITY — With the 2025 NBA Finals deadlocked at two games apiece, the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder head into tonight’s pivotal Game 5 at Paycom Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET, with national coverage on ABC.
The Thunder enter as 9.5-point favorites, and Vegas has pegged the over/under at 224.5 total points. Oklahoma City is listed at -410 on the moneyline, while Indiana faces steep odds at +320 to pull off the road upset.
Thunder Rally Forces High-Stakes Finish
After Indiana squandered a chance to take control of the series in Game 4, momentum has shifted. Oklahoma City stormed back with a dominant fourth-quarter push, capitalizing on clutch shot-making by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and second-chance points—a rare strength for a team that typically doesn’t feast on the offensive glass.
It was a bitter pill for the Pacers, who led for much of the game before collapsing late. Now, with the series reduced to a best-of-three, Indiana must return to what has defined their playoff run—stealing wins on the road against elite competition.
Tactical Chess Match
Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault made subtle but critical adjustments in Game 4. Most notably, OKC began initiating offense with Jalen Williams handling the ball and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander setting screens—creating favorable mismatches by forcing switches.
The result? Shai found more isolation opportunities against Andrew Nembhard and continued his fourth-quarter brilliance.
Though Aaron Nesmith has guarded Gilgeous-Alexander more effectively on paper (44% FG allowed vs. 42.4% against Nembhard), OKC’s offensive rating jumps significantly when Nesmith is defending Shai—highlighting the complex dynamics of Indiana’s matchup choices.
Another key switch: Chet Holmgren’s defensive role in pick-and-roll coverage. Instead of dropping back and allowing Tyrese Haliburton easy looks from midrange, the Thunder began switching Holmgren onto Haliburton—using the rookie’s 7’6” wingspan to disrupt rhythm floaters and force tough finishes at the rim.
Carlisle’s Counter?
Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle has a track record of strategic ingenuity and will undoubtedly have adjustments of his own. Whether it’s incorporating more off-ball movement for Haliburton, targeting Holmgren with cross-matches, or retooling late-game lineups to sustain offensive flow, Indiana will need to recapture its edge.
Projected Starters
Pacers:
- G: Tyrese Haliburton
- G: Andrew Nembhard
- F: Aaron Nesmith
- F: Pascal Siakam
- C: Myles Turner
Thunder:
- G: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- G: Luguentz Dort
- F: Jalen Williams
- F: Chet Holmgren
- C: Isaiah Hartenstein
What’s at Stake
A win tonight moves either team within one victory of a championship. For Oklahoma City, a chance to protect home court and place pressure squarely on the Pacers. For Indiana, it’s an opportunity to reclaim control of the series—and prove their Game 4 collapse was just a bump in their underdog story.
The pressure is real. The chessboard is set. Game 5 promises fireworks in OKC.
