ARLINGTON, Texas (Oct. 19, 2025) — The Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1) are looking to regain their footing when they host the Washington Commanders (3-3) at AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET, with FOX carrying the broadcast. The game pits two NFC East rivals in a pivotal divisional clash that could reshape the early playoff picture.
Despite being at home, Dallas enters the contest as slim 1.5-point favorites, while oddsmakers have set the over/under at 54.5 points — a signal that both offenses could find scoring opportunities in this matchup.
The Stakes: Divisional Momentum at Risk
For the Cowboys, Sunday’s game represents a must-win scenario. After dropping two straight games, including a disappointing 27-20 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 6, head coach Mike McCarthy’s squad is seeking consistency on both sides of the ball.
Washington, meanwhile, is riding a wave of confidence after edging out the Atlanta Falcons 31-27 in their last outing. A win in Arlington would give the Commanders a winning record and a crucial tiebreaker advantage in the NFC East — something that has been rare for the franchise in recent seasons.
“This is one of those matchups that always brings energy,” said Commanders head coach Dan Quinn, who previously served as the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator. “Both teams know what’s at stake. It’s about execution and composure in the big moments.”
Cowboys: Searching for Offensive Rhythm
The Cowboys have struggled to find offensive balance this season. Quarterback Dak Prescott has thrown for 1,427 yards with seven touchdowns and six interceptions, but inconsistency in the red zone has plagued Dallas. The offense ranks 18th in points per game (21.5) and has converted just 43% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns.
Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb remains Prescott’s go-to weapon, leading the team with 38 receptions and 482 yards. Tight end Jake Ferguson has also emerged as a reliable secondary option, especially on third downs. However, the running game has been underwhelming, as Tony Pollard has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and hasn’t reached the 100-yard mark since Week 2.
The Cowboys’ offensive line, once a hallmark of the franchise, has also been inconsistent, giving up 14 sacks through six games. Protecting Prescott and establishing the run early will be crucial if Dallas hopes to control the pace of play.
Defensively, Dallas still boasts one of the NFL’s most explosive units, led by Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland, who has a team-high three interceptions. But the Cowboys have shown vulnerabilities against mobile quarterbacks and big plays — a concern heading into this matchup against Washington’s versatile attack.
Commanders: Finding Their Identity Under Quinn
Washington’s offense has been quietly efficient this season under first-year coordinator Eric Bieniemy, ranking 10th in total offense. Quarterback Sam Howell has thrown for 1,556 yards and 11 touchdowns, displaying improved pocket presence and decision-making.
Running back Brian Robinson Jr. has been a steady force on the ground, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with five total touchdowns, while wideouts Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson continue to create matchup problems downfield.
Defensively, the Commanders have relied heavily on their dominant front four, anchored by Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, who have combined for six sacks and 17 quarterback pressures. However, Washington’s secondary remains a concern, allowing 256 passing yards per game — the fourth-most in the league.
If Washington can generate consistent pressure on Prescott and limit big plays to Lamb, the Commanders’ defense could tilt the game in their favor.
Key Matchup: Micah Parsons vs. Sam Howell
This divisional battle could be defined by how well Washington’s offensive line handles Parsons, one of the NFL’s most disruptive defenders. Howell has been sacked 21 times already this season — the second-highest mark in the league. If Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence can collapse the pocket early, Dallas could force turnovers and short-field opportunities.
However, Howell’s quick release and ability to extend plays could neutralize the Cowboys’ pass rush. Expect Bieniemy to mix in quick screens, misdirection, and play-action to keep Dallas guessing.
Prediction: Commanders 30, Cowboys 24
The Cowboys are favored by a narrow margin, but recent form and coaching familiarity tilt this matchup toward Washington. Expect a high-energy, physical game between two bitter NFC East foes.
Dallas’ defense will keep it close early, but Howell’s composure and Robinson’s ground control should allow the Commanders to pull away late.
Pick ATS: Commanders (+1.5)
Pick O/U: Under (54.5)
Projected Final Score: Commanders 30, Cowboys 24
Washington takes a major divisional step forward, while Dallas is left searching for answers and stability heading into the midpoint of the season.
