Colonels return to Southland Conference play Saturday night with both teams sitting at 1-1 in league action

Nicholls hits the road Saturday night for an important Southland Conference matchup against Houston Christian, and for the Colonels, the trip to Houston comes at a point where they badly need to find some consistency.

Nicholls enters the matchup 2-3 overall and 1-1 in Southland play after dropping back-to-back games against Sam Houston and No. 15 Lamar. Houston Christian is also 1-1 in conference play and comes in 2-3 overall after a 63-14 loss at North Texas last weekend.

On paper, these are two teams with identical records, but they have taken very different paths getting there.

HCU has shown an ability to score, averaging 32.4 points per game through five games. Nicholls has averaged just 19.2. The Huskies have also been considerably more productive offensively, averaging 346.6 yards per game compared to 290.4 for the Colonels.

That difference makes Saturday’s matchup particularly interesting because Nicholls may have an opportunity to attack an HCU defense that has given up yards, but the Colonels have to first rediscover the offensive rhythm they showed earlier in the season.

Nicholls Has to Find Its Offense Again

The biggest storyline for Nicholls remains the offense.

After scoring 44 points against Mississippi Valley State and 31 against UTRGV, the Colonels managed just 18 points combined against Sam Houston and Lamar. Nicholls was shut out by Sam Houston before scoring 18 in last week’s loss to Lamar.

Through five games, Nicholls is averaging 290.4 yards per game, including 168.6 passing and 121.8 rushing.

Ean Rodrigue has handled most of the work at quarterback, completing 69 of 132 passes for 760 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. His ability to push the ball downfield remains an important piece of this offense, but the Colonels need more consistency possession to possession.

Jordan Smith continues to lead the receiving group with 19 catches for 244 yards and three touchdowns. Greg Donaldson has become one of Nicholls’ biggest explosive-play threats with 190 yards on just nine receptions, an average of 21.1 yards per catch, while Jackson Dufrene has six receptions for 106 yards and three touchdowns.

Nicholls has shown that it can create explosive plays. The problem has been putting enough of them together.

Third down may tell much of the story Saturday. The Colonels are converting only 29.1 percent of their third downs this season, going 23-for-79. Extending drives has become increasingly important for an offense that cannot afford to continually give possessions back to its opponent.

Can Nicholls Establish the Run?

If Nicholls wants to take some pressure off the passing game, the running game has to become a larger factor.

Tamaj Hoffman leads the Colonels with 214 yards and two touchdowns on 50 carries, while Shane Lee has 191 yards on 49 attempts.

Rodrigue has also contributed 127 rushing yards.

As a team, however, Nicholls is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.

That number becomes even more significant when compared with what opponents have done against the Colonel defense. Nicholls has allowed 190 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry through five games.

Finding balance offensively would help Nicholls in several ways. It could keep the Colonels out of obvious passing situations, help control possession and keep the defense from spending extended stretches on the field.

HCU Brings More Balance Offensively

Houston Christian has been more balanced statistically.

The Huskies are averaging 188.6 passing yards and 158 rushing yards per game while scoring 32.4 points per contest.

Quarterback Cutter Stewart leads HCU with 611 passing yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions. Maddox Kopp has also seen significant action, throwing for 274 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

The Huskies have several players capable of producing explosive plays.

Champ Dozier leads the rushing attack with 207 yards on 46 carries, while Elijah Harris has added 164 yards. Quarterback Cutter Stewart has also been part of the running game with 142 yards.

HCU has received even more production from the receiving corps.

Jamaal Hall II leads the Huskies with 303 yards on just 14 receptions, averaging 21.6 yards per catch. Ja’Ryan Wallace has 204 yards and three touchdowns on 12 catches, while Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox has 143 yards on seven receptions.

Those numbers immediately stand out when looking at a Nicholls defense that is allowing 244.4 passing yards per game.

Limiting explosive plays will be critical.

Nicholls Defense Still Creating Turnovers

There are areas where the Nicholls defense has been productive despite the yardage allowed.

The Colonels have six interceptions through five games, led by Skylar Husband with two. Kennon Loftin leads the team with 39 tackles, followed by Husband with 29 and Kasai Jones with 23.

Jones has also recorded two sacks, while Alex Villavaso and Alec Haynes have contributed pressure off the edge.

Nicholls has forced turnovers throughout the season, and that could become particularly important against an HCU team that has turned the ball over several times during its three losses.

Nicholls may not need to completely shut down HCU’s offense. Creating two or three extra possessions could be enough to change the game.

HCU Has Been Difficult to Figure Out

Houston Christian’s season has been unusual.

The Huskies opened with a 34-28 conference win at Southeastern Louisiana, lost 31-3 at Rice, then exploded for an 88-0 victory against Arkansas Baptist.

They followed that with a competitive 30-23 loss at UIW before being overwhelmed 63-14 by North Texas.

So what exactly is HCU?

That is one of the questions Nicholls will have to answer Saturday.

The Huskies have shown they can score quickly and create explosive plays, but they have also struggled against stronger opponents and have had difficulty sustaining drives.

HCU is converting just 32.9 percent of its third downs, remarkably close to Nicholls’ 29.1 percent.

That could make this a game decided by which team handles the smaller moments better.

Special Teams Could Matter

Nicholls has one advantage that should not be overlooked.

Kingston Phan is a perfect 4-for-4 on field goals this season, including 2-for-2 from 40-49 yards, with a long of 43.

Houston Christian kicker Lukasz Smolen has been even busier, going 7-for-7 on field goals with a long of 43.

In a conference game between two teams looking to get above .500 in league play, points could become valuable. Neither coaching staff should be hesitant to take three when the opportunity is there.

What Nicholls Has to Do

This does not have to be a complicated game plan for the Colonels.

Nicholls needs to stay ahead of the chains, establish enough of a running game to keep HCU honest and give Rodrigue opportunities to attack downfield without constantly facing third-and-long.

Defensively, the Colonels have to make HCU earn everything. Hall, Wallace and Llanas-Wilcox have shown they can turn one completion into a major play, and Nicholls cannot allow the Huskies to consistently get behind the secondary.

Perhaps most importantly, Nicholls has to capitalize when opportunities appear.

The Colonels have shown flashes of being a much better football team than the overall numbers suggest. The win against UTRGV showed that. There have also been stretches against Lamar and earlier opponents where Nicholls moved the football and created turnovers.

The challenge has been sustaining it.

Saturday gives Nicholls another opportunity to do exactly that.

At 1-1 in conference play, the Southland race is still very much in front of the Colonels. A road win would move Nicholls back above .500 in league play before an open week and a return home against Stephen F. Austin on Oct. 17.

For a team trying to regain momentum after consecutive losses, Houston may be one of the most important stops of the season so far.