INDIANAPOLIS — With a golden opportunity to clinch the franchise’s first NBA title since 1979, the Oklahoma City Thunder are poised for a potential closeout in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals tonight against the Indiana Pacers. Riding high off a dominant 120-109 win in Game 5, the Thunder lead the series 3-2 and are now 6.5-point road favorites, according to updated odds from BetMGM.
Game 5 marked another commanding postseason home performance by the Thunder, who covered as 9.5-point favorites and pushed the total over for just the second time this series. The offensive fireworks were led by Jalen Williams, who exploded for a career-high 40 points, adding a new layer to the Finals MVP conversation that has been headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Haliburton’s Injury Tilts the Scales
Indiana’s uphill climb got even steeper with the news that Tyrese Haliburton is dealing with a strained right calf, forcing the All-Star guard to be listed as a game-time decision. The betting market responded swiftly: Oklahoma City moved from -4.5 to -6.5, while the total dipped from 223.5 to as low as 221.5 before rebounding slightly to 222.5.
The public appears firmly behind the Thunder in this potential clincher — 58% of bets and 61% of the handle at BetMGM are on Oklahoma City to cover the spread.
MVP Moment for SGA?
With a championship within reach, many expect Gilgeous-Alexander — the 2025 NBA MVP — to rise to the occasion. According to Yahoo Sports betting analyst Jon Metler, Game 6 is shaping up to be the defining moment for SGA.
“It’s an opportunity to win the NBA Finals on the road. If you’re not leaning on the league MVP more than ever, I’ll be stunned,” Metler said. “You don’t think Shai wants to put any Jalen Williams Finals MVP talk to bed in a potential closeout game?”
Metler also noted the chess match within Indiana’s defensive strategy. By committing additional resources to stop SGA, the Pacers have created openings for Williams, who torched them in Game 5. But if Indiana shifts its focus toward Williams in Game 6, expect Gilgeous-Alexander to reassert control.
“That just opens up the floor even more for SGA,” Metler added.
Pacers’ Adjustments and Betting Insight
Should Haliburton miss the game or be significantly limited, Indiana may lean more heavily on Andrew Nembhard offensively, which could reduce his defensive assignments on Gilgeous-Alexander. That, combined with a smaller, offense-first lineup, could further expose the Pacers defensively — not ideal against one of the league’s most efficient attacks.
Metler sees only a marginal edge in props markets but hinted that SGA-related props — particularly scoring or assist totals — may hold value, stating, “I believe it should be trading at -115 instead of +110.”
Tipoff and Broadcast Info
Game 6 tips off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game will be nationally televised, with a potential championship celebration in the cards for a young Thunder squad that has taken the league by storm.
Should the Pacers survive and force a Game 7, it would be played Sunday back in Oklahoma City. But for now, the Thunder are one win away from a storybook finish — and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one performance away from potentially cementing Finals MVP status.
