PHOENIX, Ariz. (Oct. 10, 2025) — The Las Vegas Aces (8–3) stand on the brink of another WNBA championship, while the Phoenix Mercury (5–5) are fighting to extend their season. Tipoff for Game 4 of the WNBA Finals is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, with the action airing live on ESPN.

Las Vegas enters tonight’s contest as the betting favorite at -3 (-110), with a total set at 163.5 points (-110o / -110u). On the moneyline, the Aces sit at -144, while the Mercury are priced at +120 to stave off elimination and force a Game 5.

Aces One Win Away from Back-to-Back Titles

The Aces have looked every bit like the dynasty-in-the-making many expected. After pulling off an impressive 90–88 road victory in Game 3 — powered by A’ja Wilson’s 34 points and 14 rebounds — Las Vegas now holds a commanding 3–0 series lead.

Head coach Becky Hammon’s squad has shown the versatility and poise of a championship team, finding different heroes each night. While Wilson continues to dominate the paint, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray have been instrumental in orchestrating the offense, pushing the pace and punishing defensive mismatches.

“We’ve been here before,” Hammon said postgame. “We respect what Phoenix brings, especially on their home floor. But our focus is on closing the door — doing it with defense, composure, and energy from start to finish.”

The Aces’ balanced attack has overwhelmed Phoenix so far. Through three games, Las Vegas is shooting 48.9% from the field and averaging 90.6 points per game, while limiting the Mercury to just 43.5% shooting overall.

Still, even with a commanding series lead, Hammon knows closing out a Finals opponent is never easy — especially a team with veterans like DeWanna Bonner and Kahleah Copper, who’ve shown the ability to take over late.

Mercury Rely on Alyssa Thomas to Spark a Comeback

The Phoenix Mercury are no strangers to adversity. After losing the first two games in Las Vegas, they nearly stole Game 3 behind a furious fourth-quarter rally before falling just short. Tonight, their mission is simple: survive and force the series back to Vegas.

Their success hinges on Alyssa Thomas, who’s been quiet by her standards this series. After averaging 17 field-goal attempts per game against the Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals, Thomas’ shot volume has dipped dramatically — she’s yet to attempt more than 11 shots in any of the three Finals matchups.

Despite the drop in scoring, her playmaking has been elite, dishing out 23 assists in three games and continuing to serve as the engine for Phoenix’s offensive flow.

“Alyssa’s the heartbeat of this team,” Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts said. “We’ll go as far as she takes us. We know she can score and facilitate at an elite level, and she’s due for a big one tonight.”

Thomas has averaged 8.7 assists per game this series and has been efficient shooting the ball — 53% from the floor — but Phoenix will need her to be more aggressive to offset Las Vegas’ size and physicality inside.

Betting Outlook and Key Trends

Oddsmakers have adjusted the lines significantly after Game 3, reducing Phoenix’s home-court edge. The Aces have covered in all three games of the series and are 7–3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.

Meanwhile, the Over (163.5) has hit in all three Finals contests, with both offenses clicking at high tempo. The Aces are averaging 88.6 points per game in the playoffs, while the Mercury have hit at least 80 points in two of their last three home outings.

For prop bettors, the spotlight is firmly on Alyssa Thomas (Over 25.5 Points + Assists, -115) — a line she’s poised to eclipse if Phoenix hopes to extend the series. Her ability to combine scoring and distribution is critical to any Mercury comeback.

Best Bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-115)

Expect a high-energy, emotional matchup with the Mercury feeding off a raucous home crowd. But the Aces’ championship experience and balance could once again prove too much to handle.

Prediction

The Mercury will make this one competitive, with Thomas putting up a monster all-around performance and Copper keeping the offense steady. But in the end, Las Vegas’ depth, defense, and Wilson’s MVP-caliber play should be the difference.

Final Score Prediction:
Las Vegas Aces 88, Phoenix Mercury 82